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Acapulco: Climate Risk and Crime

Writer's picture: Fer ChimaFer Chima

As a child, I pictured Acapulco as a beautiful sunny resort near the beach. Palm trees, the smell of coconut shampoo, showing off a fresh tan while eating seafood and listening to “Juguito de Piña” (listen here).


Years later as the morning news started to be of my interest, I realized Acapulco wasn’t all fun and parties. I grew aware of Guerrero (Acapulco’s state) as a violent place. Every other week, news highlighting crime and drug trafficking in Acapulco would be covered (news here).


Now, as a graduate student focusing on policy analysis, I can’t help but wonder about the link between natural disasters and organized crime in Mexico. The first thing that comes to mind is a map from last semester that showed the Mexican cartels areas of influence. Other than just highlighting cartel leaders by state, Figure 2 shows two key points:


  1. The increase in drug trafficking in Mexico from the 1990s to 2011. From the 1990s to 2000 Mexico’s administration was in the hands of the 71-year-ruling political party PRI. The change to a new administration came in 2000 with PAN at the front until 2012. Meaningful changes on institutional crime prosecution after 2018 (end of PAN government and start of MORENA) are not reflected in the maps. 

  2. The intense rivalry between two cartels: La Familia Michoacana and the Beltrán Leyva Organization, both notorious for money laundering, cocaine exports, extortion, and violence. Given the presence of two cartels in the region, more murders and gun violence occur.

Figure 2 from Battiston, 2022.

Next, let's consider the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters in Mexico. I focused on earthquakes and floods, two of the most common and immediate threats in the country. In the left panel, we see that Acapulco is at the highest level of vulnerability for earthquakes, while for floods, it ranges from medium to high. Compared to other cities in Mexico, it seems that Acapulco is highly exposed to climate risk.


What does it imply in the relationship Vulnerable Communities -> Organized Crime?

Working with data, I learned that making clear cause-and-effect conclusions from visualizations can be tricky. While maps and graphs can show interesting ideas, they don’t always lead to solid conclusions. To truly understand how climate vulnerability affects crime rates, we would need to conduct an econometric analysis. This might involve using experimental or quasi-experimental methods and comparing similar areas, like Acapulco and other cities in Guerrero.


Since the only goal of this blog is to encourage critical thinking about the long-term effects of natural disasters on poverty and risk in a region; I will close with a final point on reported crimes in Acapulco compared to other states in Guerrero. From January to August 2024, Acapulco had a total of 7,156 reported crimes, which included 39 extortions and 3 kidnappings. These numbers highlight that:


  • Acapulco has the highest crime rate in the state.

  • This data helps illustrate how Acapulco stands out as an special city (outlier).

  • Note that crimes are likely underreported.


So can there be a causal relationship between the high level of crime in Acapulco and Climate Risk?

I would love to know, I will read you if you want to share your thoughts.



 

I am terribly sad by the loss of life and the economic hardship facing families in Acapulco, and I can only hope for a swift response from our government to provide the necessary aid.

 

References: 

Battiston, Giacomo and Daniele, Gianmarco and Le Moglie, Marco and Pinotti, Paolo, Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts (January 13, 2022). BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2022-171, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4007993 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4007993


Buschschlüter, V. (2023, September 30). Mexico counting dead from 'zombie storm'. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66970638


Indicadores Municipales de Peligro, Exposición y Vulnerabilidad. Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres. CENAPRED. http://www.atlasnacionalderiesgos.gob.mx/. Retrieved on October 1, 2024. 


Malkin, E. (2017, July 22). How Acapulco became Mexico’s murder capital. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/how-acapulco-became-mexicos-murder-capital/


Observatorio Nacional de Criminalidad. (2024). Mapa de carpetas de investigación [Research folders map]. Delitos México. https://delitosmexico.onc.org.mx/mapa?unit=folders&indicator=researchFoldersRate&period=8-2024&group=month&crime=2000&domain=


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